PurpleTeam Financial Planner50-year plan · guardrails 20/10/10
Chance money runs out–
–

chance the portfolio runs out before year 50

under 1%1 to 3%3 to 7%7 to 15%15%+

What the Portfolio Could Look Like

Markets
Spending as You Age

In the Easy view, the plan is tested on real market history since 1871. Spending is trimmed in bad years and raised in good ones, and stays the same as you age. The Enterprise view has the other choices.

Portfolio value at the start of each year, in today's dollars, across 30,000 simulated market futures.

Typical future (median)Middle half of futuresNearly all futures (5th to 95th percentile)

What You Could Spend Each Year

Yearly spending in today's dollars. The guardrails cut or raise it by 10% when the portfolio drifts far enough from plan.

Typical future (median)Middle half of futuresNearly all futures (5th to 95th percentile)

Goals by Priority

Rank the costs that are goals as needs, wants or wishes. Each goal's chance is the chance the plan works with it and every goal above it, and none below: the chance of having it without giving up anything more important.Rank your goals as needs, wants or wishes. Each goal's chance counts that goal and every goal above it.

Save scenarios and line them up side by side on the .

Show the Numbers Behind the Charts
How This Works, and What It Leaves Out

The page runs the same model as the withdrawal-plan report: 30,000 random market futures over 50 years, in today's dollars. Stocks average 7% a year after inflation (bonds 1.8%, cash 0.8%) with realistic ups and downs, less a 0.10% fee. The random draws are fixed, so changing a number moves the result and nothing else.

Both spouses are assumed to live all 50 years. Year 1 is 2027 (he is 46, she is 42). Taxes on withdrawals, long-term care, a survivor's smaller Social Security check and changes in the euro are not included; the report covers taxes and the survivor rule separately. Results vary by about 0.1 point if the random draws change.

"Running out" means the portfolio reaches zero. Income streams that are still paying keep going, at about the "income if the money runs out" figure shown above.